Project I.1.3: Scenario simulations
Project Name: I.1.3 Scenario simulations
Project Lead: Modeling Team
Web http://www.stccmop.org/saturn/scenarios
Project Description
This project uses the virtual CR as a testbed for evaluating a series of what-if scenarios, determining the likely impacts of environmental changes on CR circulation processes. These scenarios can be used to predict the impacts of physical alterations of the estuary (e.g. dredging, salmon habitat restoration, etc.), or to reconstruct a virtual predevelopment CR based on historic cartographic records.
Fit in program
The scenarios are the primary means of predicting the impacts of change on CR processes. Scenarios are also used to characterize historical CR processes, thereby establishing a baseline from which to evaluate change and variability.
Outcomes
The following scenarios have been defined and run using db14 weeks 16 through 36 of 2004 as a baseline:
| Simulation | Domain / code | Short descriptor |
| Extreme Subduction Event |
Beaver to shelf SELFE |
This scenario simulates CR circulation processes after a massive Cascadia Subduction Zone seismic event, such as occurs on a 300-350 year cycle. Subduction magnitudes are estimated by modelers at DOGAMI. |
| Sealevel Rise | Beaver to shelf SELFE |
This scenario imposes a 2100 CE sea-level increase of 30 cm (as predicted by the IPCC), on the standard control run. |
| Predevelopment | Beaver to shelf SELFE |
The domain grid for this scenario is based on a reconstruction of the CR estuary circa 1880, developed using historical cartographic records and written descriptions. River flow at the upstream boundary is based on pre-dam records. All other forcing remain identical to the control runs. |
Several aspects of the scenarios are evaluated, including the physical characteristics of the plume, the maximum distances of salinity intrusion, and the relative availability of juvenile salmonid habitat (as defined by velocity, depth, temperature, and salinity).
